Last week I joined friends from Young China Watchers based in Hong Kong and Beijing to trade stories on life after lockdown and the new normal. Julia Chen, Public Policy Researcher at a tech company, had completed a mandatory 2-week quarantine in a Beijing hotel after making her way back from the UK just before borders closed, while Sam Colombie, an independent media professional, was serving the tail end of his quarantine in his Hong Kong appartment with a health band around his wrist. Thena Lee, a Political Economy Consultant, has been navigating the restrictions in Beijing (pictured below).
India,Brazil,Russia and USA have seen a sharp rise in cases,in the last 30 days.55% of their cases came in the last 30 days,and for India,it will worsen exponentially.If you see the kill data of the RIB (Russia,India and Brazil) in the BRICS – it has increased sharply,in the last 30 days (which proves my thesis).Same for the USA.
People dying today,were in the quasi morgue (hospitals) 30-60 days ago.Let us take it,at 30 days.
So we rewind to 30 days ago,and exclude the jump in RIB of BRICS and the USA ,in the last 30 days. So we exclude 4 million cases piled up in the last 30 days .So we have say 10 million cases and the kill quant is 600,000
Rate proximates 6% !
Also have to exclude the recovered cases – as those with immunity will recover in 30 days – AS THE VIRUS was DESIGNED THAT WAY.Unlike HIV and Cancer – where patients are NOT likely to recover- on a generic mode.But those who recover from COVID -WILL (in part) come back again,and then die (as the immunity will fade out - very soon).That will double count the infected cases.Hence,we exclude the recovered cases (which are 8 million,as per site stated above).
So now we have 2 million cases, and a kill quant of 600,00,which is a 20% advalorem
But that is also wrong,as the infected are NOT solely on RTPCR mode.Many nations cannot afford it and are doing antibody tests.An antibody positive may be RTPCR negative,and the vice versa, is less likely. If you exclude these specimens from the infected tally,the % rises further.
Cannot compare the dead to the entire population of a state or a nation or a region – as of this instant – as it would include billions of aged,morbid and asymptomatics – who will get infected very soon.
If we take a 1 year horizon – then post the 1 year – you could take the global population – as that by that time,the virus would have had enough time,to spread,evolve and mutate (across the latitudes and seasons).At that stage,a ratio w.r.t the aggregate population,would be a meaningful statistic – to benchmark intra and inter se,with other diseases.By that time the death rate will mature and the complete breakdown of the health infrastructure will be apparent (to explain the future geometric rise)
In addition,in a 1 year time span,the fading out of antibodies,relapse of discharged patients, impact of trial vaccine,transmission and conversion of asymptomatics etc.,will have mutated, in all its combos - as a seasoned virus.
At that stage the aggregate deaths,can be compared,to the aggregate population
People say that the COVID death rate is 0.40% ! This was circulated in several news channels also !
Me Thinks the death rate is beyond 10%,on aggregate count,and for some nations it is way beyond.
As per – https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries = there are 14 million cases and 600000 dead.Simple numerics place it at proximating 4.5%.
Wrong me says ! dindooohindoo
India,Brazil,Russia and USA have seen a sharp rise in cases,in the last 30 days.55% of their cases came in the last 30 days,and for India,it will worsen exponentially.If you see the kill data of the RIB (Russia,India and Brazil) in the BRICS – it has increased sharply,in the last 30 days (which proves my thesis).Same for the USA.
People dying today,were in the quasi morgue (hospitals) 30-60 days ago.Let us take it,at 30 days.
So we rewind to 30 days ago,and exclude the jump in RIB of BRICS and the USA ,in the last 30 days. So we exclude 4 million cases piled up in the last 30 days .So we have say 10 million cases and the kill quant is 600,000
Rate proximates 6% !
Also have to exclude the recovered cases – as those with immunity will recover in 30 days – AS THE VIRUS was DESIGNED THAT WAY.Unlike HIV and Cancer – where patients are NOT likely to recover- on a generic mode.But those who recover from COVID -WILL (in part) come back again,and then die (as the immunity will fade out - very soon).That will double count the infected cases.Hence,we exclude the recovered cases (which are 8 million,as per site stated above).
So now we have 2 million cases, and a kill quant of 600,00,which is a 20% advalorem
But that is also wrong,as the infected are NOT solely on RTPCR mode.Many nations cannot afford it and are doing antibody tests.An antibody positive may be RTPCR negative,and the vice versa, is less likely. If you exclude these specimens from the infected tally,the % rises further.
Cannot compare the dead to the entire population of a state or a nation or a region – as of this instant – as it would include billions of aged,morbid and asymptomatics – who will get infected very soon.
If we take a 1 year horizon – then post the 1 year – you could take the global population – as that by that time,the virus would have had enough time,to spread,evolve and mutate (across the latitudes and seasons).At that stage,a ratio w.r.t the aggregate population,would be a meaningful statistic – to benchmark intra and inter se,with other diseases.By that time the death rate will mature and the complete breakdown of the health infrastructure will be apparent (to explain the future geometric rise)
In addition,in a 1 year time span,the fading out of antibodies,relapse of discharged patients, impact of trial vaccine,transmission and conversion of asymptomatics etc.,will have mutated, in all its combos - as a seasoned virus.
At that stage the aggregate deaths,can be compared,to the aggregate population